Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
